End of Oil in Sight? – An article in Wind and Wave

Wind & Wave Connect

Renewables is the new black; the global investment story

 

With the price of oil halving in just six months, other fuel costs have similarly crashed. Although good news for hard-pressed motorists, homeowners and business managers, many commentators have questioned the impact this will have on renewables investment and deployment.

 

However, as oil prices for now at least seem to have stabilised, David Casale, director at cleantech merchant bank Turquoise International, explains how the relationship between the value of ‘black gold’ and investment in renewable technology is perhaps not as straightforward as you might first think.   

 

After months of falling prices, February saw a slight upturn in the value of a barrel of crude oil. This said, its international price is still 50% lower than last year’s peak, with many predicting that the situation is likely to stay this way for at least the medium term. By prompting big changes in the way in which organisations shape their exposure to the wider energy sector, this could have dramatic implications.

 

In the past few weeks alone, the big oil giants have announced large fourth quarter losses, cut investment plans and slowed down production to try to manage the supply/demand curve. There have also been plenty of headlines around potential job losses across the global oil and gas industries..

 

However, when it comes to the renewables sector, the relationship between established renewable energy sources – like solar and wind and oil prices is less clear – the latest figures from Bloomberg New Energy Finance demonstrate that renewable energy investments increased by 16% in 2014, reaching £205bn, the first growth since 2011 – and five times the figures recorded a decade ago. It could be argued, in fact, that the success of the renewable energy industry has actually contributed to recent oil price fluctuations by lessening demand, alongside shale gas and wider efficiency measures.

 

One potentially massive possibility is that those with large oil reserves have seen the end of the tunnel and are valuing their product with an eye on stranded assets – un-burnable reserves. If this were the case it would be the single biggest endorsement of low carbon energy of all time.

 

In the medium term we are yet to see the full impact oil price declines are to have on renewable investment, and that the true test will come after the election. Subsidy uncertainty aside, UK, European and global government support for renewables continues to make the sector relatively attractive for investors, who can see a direct return on their investment within a defined timeframe.

 

What’s more, climate change is still top of the global agenda, with a growing number of mandatory clean energy targets and carbon pricing policies, the increasing pressure to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and make the switch to more resilient and low carbon technologies providing comfort to those in the renewable sector. The need for a low carbon and diverse energy mix is not up for debate, how to achieve it at least cost is.

 

However, the way in which that energy portfolio comes together may well be impacted by the failing fortunes of the oil economy. For example, the resulting fall in the price of gas will bring gas-fired power stations back onto the horizon, while nuclear and CCS are still being debated as short to medium term solutions.

 

The costs of established technologies – like wind and solar – are coming down and remain on course to be at least in a headline sense cost-competitive with oil and gas. However, some of the newer, more innovative and niche technologies, may suffer in the short-term as they are not so resilient. This will be especially apparent if government subsidies are also pulled away and refocused elsewhere.

 

Taking the UK as a specific example, the upcoming General Election will see voters not make their decisions based on who can best balance the carbon budget, but instead on who can keep the price of power down. As such, we are likely to see an ‘affordability, affordability, affordability’ approach to energy policy; at least until a new government settles down and feels safe enough to change processes.

 

Lower power affect the government appetite to pay out on the current Contracts for Difference (CfD) regime as the market price reduction increases the effective subsidy to each unit of renewable electricity generated. As the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) only updates its pricing forecasts once a year, this debate is probably waiting in the wings of Whitehall.

 

Looking at the big picture, while the current volatility in oil prices has sent some markets into panic stations, the reality is that this is nothing new. Fossil fuels have always fluctuated and that is part of the reason why global economies have already invested significantly in trying to rebalance this energy risk. From an investment point of view, while subsidies and pricing may impact on renewables in the short-term, the long-term game is clear.

 

To meet the needs of future generations and deliver lower carbon concentrations changes to our use and sources of energy will change. Renewables offer part of the solution and the investment risk is clearly manageable despite whatever sparkle has come off the black gold market.

 

 

The oil price is dropping is that good or bad news?

The oil price has dropped by roughly 50% in six months, the energy industry often has surprises and let no one deny this was a surprise.

The easy Good News is;

  • It is getting cheaper to buy fuel for the car
  • It is getting cheaper to buy gas and power for the home

The more complex Good News is;

  • This could be the major oil producers deciding that the end game for oil is within their sight (they look out 50 years) and so they are worried that their oil might get what is called ‘stranded’ a bit like having a lot of Kodak film just when the iphone6 comes out, its good stuff but no one wants it.  What might cause stranding of oil assets?; US shale oil, electric vehicles, air pollution standards, energy efficiency, solar energy, other renewable energy forms, its all pointing one way in the long term. So the complex Good News is that we are starting to move towards an oil free (or much reduced) energy system and that is good for the environment and is what we have now all agreed needs to happen.
  • Alaskan oil and Canadian tar sands might get scrapped

The easy Bad News is;

  • UK oil producers are going to find life tough and they employ a lot of people
  • The strike prices for renewable power will probably get lowered so slowing down the development of renewable power

The more complex Bad News is;

  • demand for oil will increase
  • the Middle East and Russia will have less income to pay for their social welfare costs

Ok so let me know what do you think, I believe its overall very good news as it marks the time the energy market’s catch up with the science of climate change – as Mark Carney say ‘only half the oil discovered by oil companies will ever be burnt’.